ORIGINAL COMPANY-CONTEXT PRACTICE
Forecast service workload from an evolving installed base
Original practice scenario: A hypothetical aircraft-engine service team forecasts incoming shop work. The active fleet changes and some engines have incomplete usage observations. Design a baseline evaluation.
Written for independent practice using company context; this is not a verified question from a company interview.
A REASONED APPROACH
Model answer.
Use exposure and installed-base changes alongside historical arrivals. A rising service count may reflect more active equipment rather than a deterioration in reliability.
Work through it
- Define the workload unit and planning horizon, retaining fleet entries, exits and known usage coverage as of each forecast origin.
- Compare transparent historical-rate and calendar baselines with richer predictors using rolling backtests, keeping future maintenance outcomes and later fleet revisions out of features.
- Report workload error and interval coverage by fleet family and maturity, separating scheduled work from unexpected arrivals when those decisions differ.
Tradeoffs to discuss
- Detailed equipment histories can improve segmentation but increase missing-data and maintenance costs; pooled baselines are simpler while obscuring local variation.
Common pitfalls
- Do not treat missing usage as zero exposure.
- A workload forecast is a capacity-planning exercise, not an approved prediction of individual engine safety.